StinkPalm
04-30-2009, 10:51 AM
Ok I built an exponential smoothing model in excel according to the equations:
S0=X0
St= αXt + (1-α)S(t-1)
Where S is predicted (or smoothed) value
X = observed value
α = alpha which is the smoothing factor between 0 < α < 1
Now according to my understanding of this equation if α = 0 then αXt part is 0 and thus the equation equals S(t-1). Furthermore S at time 0 is set to X at time 0 so that means the value is just held at X0.
But when I run the same model in SAS the result is not X at time 0 but instead it the value of my last observation of X not my first observation.
This is what is confusing me. Can any of you explain why there is a difference in results?
S0=X0
St= αXt + (1-α)S(t-1)
Where S is predicted (or smoothed) value
X = observed value
α = alpha which is the smoothing factor between 0 < α < 1
Now according to my understanding of this equation if α = 0 then αXt part is 0 and thus the equation equals S(t-1). Furthermore S at time 0 is set to X at time 0 so that means the value is just held at X0.
But when I run the same model in SAS the result is not X at time 0 but instead it the value of my last observation of X not my first observation.
This is what is confusing me. Can any of you explain why there is a difference in results?